Name: The $600,000 Case for Bitcoin
Uploaded: 2024-03-12T14:12:00Z
Duration: 3 min 34 s
Description: On the Barron’s Streetwise podcast, Raphael Zagury of Swan Bitcoin shares his bitcoin price model with Associate Editor Jack Hough.

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On the Barron’s Streetwise podcast, Raphael Zagury of Swan Bitcoin shares his bitcoin price model with Associate Editor Jack Hough.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20240312/c0acb0bf-e4e3-46ca-8fd5-13af6fa401e5/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

The $600,000 Case for Bitcoin

There is a chance that Bitcoin can rule the financial world somewhere down the line or, you know, rise to a position of great prominence, like all of the world's major asset classes. And then there's a chance that it could flop. But just putting a probability on the first outcome, if you say it is a 50/50 chance or a 20% chance, or whatever percent chance there is, if you put a decent probability on that, you come up with a present value on Bitcoin that is what, significantly higher than the current value? Is that the idea?

Yeah, exactly. I don't make price predictions because the one thing I know about Bitcoin is that I'm definitely gonna be wrong about the price, right? But my base case on that model, it's Bitcoin at $620,000, right. Today, at today's price. So I, you know, if, if I'm correct, my probability are correct, Bitcoin should have been, should be trading at $600,000 and not at $60,000 that is trading right now.

And that $620,000 value, that implies like what kind of probability that Bitcoin will achieve what kind of prominence?

Yeah, so the good news is I actually created a web app for this on the Nakamotoportfolio.com website that you can go there and you can actually change your probabilities.

Jack: Right, I got a swirly thing in the middle.

Raphael: Just click in the middle to start.

Jack: Yeah so, okay, Bitcoin's, so that's a nine. It says here 9X, that's a ninefold gain from where we are now.

You see on the right hand side real estate, just click there on that arrow and it'll show you like that the, the market value, it's $320 trillion right? And then the monetary premium price here in this model is 30%, right? And there's a probability of capturing of 5%. So on my base case, I'm only saying that in 20 years Bitcoin only has a 5% probability of capturing, what I say is a 30% monetary premium in real estate. I, you know, and this, I think it's conservative.

So you're saying that real estate is collectively worth $320 trillion and you believe that 30% of that is like a store of value, like not, not just people buying the sticks and stones and you then the utility and the shelter, but people saying this is part of my financial assets. And you're saying that you have built into your model a 5% chance that Bitcoin will over 20 years achieve that same store of value use as real estate?

That's correct. Got it. You see what it says, estimated probability of capture, there's a slider on the bottom.

Jack: Yeah.

Raphael: Slide that to the right and notice the price of Bitcoin on the top in orange.

So if you slide the probability up, the price of Bitcoin goes up. So if we're at 10%, then it's about a $621,000 Bitcoin price. If we double that and go to 20%, then we're at $735,000 on Bitcoin. And we could make similar adjustments for all these assets that you have here. And you have stocks, bonds, gold, silver real estate, which we've just tinkered with, and then all the other cryptocurrencies beside Bitcoin. And then fine art, you also have.

The $600,000 Case for Bitcoin

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